UPDATED: Box Office Mojo on Sunday confirmed my info from rival studio estimates: Paramount's MI3 will gross only a disappointing $47.4 million for this opening weekend. That's way down from the pre-Friday estimates of $63 million from 4,054 theaters. After Friday's numbers came in, I was told by rival studios that MI3 would end the opening weekend with mid-$40 millions -- $45 mil-to-$46 mil. That's also much, much lower compared with MI2's 2000 gross of $57 mil for the Friday-Saturday-Sunday period and $71 mil over the 4-day Memorial Weekend. Friday night's MI3 box office figure was only in the vicinity of $17 mil domestically, Saturday's night's 18.4 mil and Sunday's estimated at a feeble $13 mil. So, is the disappointing box office Cruise's fault? Or the movie's fault? After all, reviews have been mixed. The big question I posed previously: Will MI3 Withstand Tom Cruise Cooling?
MI3 has been shaping up as referendum more than recreation. That's because the opening box office numbers would gauge Tom Cruise's viability given all that bad press he's getting (most of it his doing). There's always been an imbecilic debate in Hollywood whether bad pre-release buzz can harm a movie's financial prospects. But that focused on the content or cost or production of the movie. MI3 had an altogether different dilemma focusing on Cruise personally: his Scientology, his girlfriend, his bizarre behavior. Today, Hollywood players told me they blamed Cruise for the poor MI3 opening.
The bad news is that young males can be fickle about action stars, and the tracking showed young females already had signs of Cruise fatigue. On the other hand, here was a proven film franchise (where the sequel was better than the original), a director known for commercial sensibility (J.J. Abrams), and, of course, Oscar-winner Philip Seymour Hoffman as villain (but he doesn't get enough face time in the film, and especially not enough face time opposite Tom). I foresaw there may be people who'll make a statement by waiting to see MI3 on DVD or cable just to avoid putting first-dollar theater gross in Cruise's already obese wallet (since he's not only the star but also the producer). Still, as much as Cruise's career may be down around his ankles, I was confident the May 5th opening wouldn't be Waterworld redux. It would follow the summer pattern: the earlier a film is released in May, the better the box office. But, in the final analysis, MI3's first weekend was near disastrous.
http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/mi3-box-office-disappoints-cruises-fault/
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M:I3 fails to accomplish predictions
Paramount's "Mission: Impossible III" debuted with $48.025 million, a solid opening, yet well below industry expectations and almost $10 million lower than the franchise's previous installment, according to studio estimates Sunday.
Industry analysts had expected the movie to open in the range of "Mission: Impossible II," which debuted with $57.8 million from Friday to Sunday over Memorial Day weekend in 2000, and Cruise's "War of the Worlds," which premiered with $64.9 million from Friday to Sunday over Fourth of July weekend last year.
Rob Moore, Paramount's head of worldwide marketing and distribution, said he did not believe Cruise's private life had any impact on "Mission: Impossible III," directed by "Lost" creator J.J. Abrams. (Watch busy Cruise promote his new movie -- 2:10)
"I don't think so. There's no question it concerns us if the press is writing about things other than the movie," Moore said. "If people are writing about his personal life, then by definition, they're not writing about the movie."
Cruise's antics in the past year or so, publicity over his romance with Katie Holmes and the tabloid blitz regarding their daughter's birth in April may have left some movie-goers burned out or disenchanted with the actor.
Traditionally reserved about his private life, Cruise abruptly became an open book, jumping up and down on a couch while professing his love for Holmes in an interview with Oprah Winfrey and spouting his Scientology beliefs, including rants against psychiatry.
"Expectations were really high for this film. I think it's a good number, but people were obviously expecting better numbers," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Exhibitor Relations. "There's a lot to be said for how a star's public persona can affect a movie's box office."
"Mission: Impossible III" earned generally favorable reviews, some critics calling it the best in the franchise and many offering high praise for Academy Award winner Philip Seymour Hoffman, who plays Cruise's nemesis.
Along with potential Cruise backlash, the long six-year interval since "Mission: Impossible II" may have dulled audience appetites.
Head-to-head comparisons are difficult, since the previous "Mission: Impossible" movies and "War of the Worlds" opened over long holiday weekends, when Sunday grosses typically are much stronger than during a regular weekend.
Debuting in about 55 other countries, "Mission: Impossible III" took in $70 million, for a worldwide total of $118 million. Paramount noted that the new movie beat the $115 million worldwide debut of "Mission: Impossible II" in those same countries.
Factoring in higher ticket prices, the debut for "Mission: Impossible III" looks worse. About 7.3 million people saw the new movie, compared with 10.7 million over the opening weekend for "Mission: Impossible II" and 10.3 million for "Mission: Impossible," which opened with $45.4 million over Memorial Day weekend in 1996.
The weekend's other wide releases had fair to poor openings. Freestyle Releasing's "An American Haunting," starring Sissy Spacek and Donald Sutherland in a 19th century supernatural tale, debuted at No. 3 with $6.4 million.
New Line's family film "Hoot," adapted from Carl Hiaasen's novel about teenagers trying to save endangered owls, earned $3.4 million, tied for No. 9.
"Mission: Impossible III' led Hollywood to its seventh-straight weekend of rising revenues. The top-12 movies took in $99.4 million, up 27 percent compared to the same weekend last year, when "Kingdom of Heaven" led the box office with an anemic $19.6 million.
http://www.cnn.com/2006/SHOWBIZ/Movies/05/07/box.office.ap/index.html
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Unusual MI3 Ticket Sales at Hollywood ArcLight Near Scientology Celeb
Center
by Nikki Finke
Deadline Hollywood Daily
http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/unusual-mi3-ticket-sales-at-arc...
I have confirmed today that there has been an unusual pattern of ticket
sales for Tom Cruise's Mission Impossible 3 at Hollywood's ArcLight
Theater, which just happens to be located right near the Church of
Scientology Celebrity Center where Cruise belongs. Unconfirmed
anecdotes are circulating on the Internet this weekend of individuals
buying hundreds of tickets at a time from the ArcLight. But an ArcLight
employee did confirm to me just now that "people have been buying
dozens of tickets at a time" for MI3, which is definitely an
extraordinary sales pattern for the movie theater (or any theater, for
that matter). Certainly, the "M" word -- for manipulation -- comes to
mind.
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It's working y'all!
PerezHilton.com is connected and all of our studio sources are abuzz at how Mission Impossible 3 is underperforming.
Though official numbers won't be released until Monday, our industry insiders have access to up-to-the minute box office information.
And, here is the grim news on Mission Impossible 3.
In the U.S., the film is expected to have taken in $16-18 million on Friday, with a total weekend gross of approx. $50 million, almost $10 million less than MI2 took in its opening weekend.
While - for any other film - this would be boffo box office, for Tom Cruise this is a failure!
Take this into consideration:
Let us look at other film's that have opened in recent years also on the first Friday in May.
- Van Helsing, which we can all agree was a crap movie, opened to $51 million, which could end up being more than MI3 takes in on this same opening weekend.
- X2 took in $85 million several years back on this weekend.
- Van Helsing's final gross was $120 mill. However, our industry experts predict MI3 will take in between $130-150 million, depending on the 2nd week drop off.
Once again, $150 million would be a lot for any other film. But, MI2 took in $215 million at the box office. And, even the first Mission Impossible took in $180 mill.
Other sequels that have fared better: Die Another Day ($160 million) and The Bourne Supremacy ($176 million).
Poor Tom.
We will shed a tear for him. Just one!
http://www.perezhilton.com/topics/tom_cruise/mission_failed_20060506.php
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Wow, so Mission Impossible 3 makes only $17 Mil on opening day with it being shown on over 4000 screens nation wide. That's a lot of screens to only make $17 Mil. Pretty sad.
So what movies would make more money on opening day, if they were to be made and released on over 4000 screens? Here's my predictions:
1. From Justin to Kelly 2 - $23 Million
2. Teen Wolf Three - $18 Million
3. Spice World Two - $21 Million
4. Problem Child 4 - $18 Million
4. Blair Witch 3 - $27 Million
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From defamer.com :
While some of Tom Cruise's pals from the mothership clearly failed in
their mission to support Scientology's brightest light on his big day,
at least one other emissary did her part to make sure a local theater
was packed with a Cruise-friendly contingent. Reported an operative on
Saturday night:
"I'm buying tixs for the movie here at the arclight and standing next to
me is a woman self-admittedly from the scientology center who is buying
700 tickets with piles of cash. wow."
Hollywood Interrupted also has an eyewitness account of the (same, we
assume) group sale, claiming a purchase of 900 tickets for almost $9000.
It's not exactly churchloads of Christians renting out theaters to
support Mel Gibson's little movie about Jesus, but at least there were a
couple of screenings here in L.A. with fewer available seats where
suppressive moviegoers could titter at every perceived real-life
parallel between Katie Holmes and the kidnapping of Cruise's onscreen love.
We have a confirmation of this actually happening:
http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/unusual-mi3-ticket-sales-at-arc...
I have confirmed today that there has been an unusual pattern of ticket
sales for Tom Cruise's Mission Impossible 3 at Hollywood's ArcLight
Theater, which just happens to be located right near the Church of
Scientology Celebrity Center where Cruise belongs. Unconfirmed anecdotes
are circulating on the Internet this weekend of individuals buying
hundreds of tickets at a time from the ArcLight. But an ArcLight
employee did confirm to me just now that "people have been buying dozens
of tickets at a time" for MI3, which is definitely an extraordinary
sales pattern for the movie theater (or any theater, for that matter).
Certainly, the "M" word -- for manipulation -- comes to mind.
What is really, really dumb is that
1) The Church of Scientology actually thinks it can change people's opinions by
rigging polls, and rigging box office stats.
2) After many PR flaps resulting from the same antics -- church members
buying hundreds of copies of Battlefield Earth in the '80s comes to mind
-- they still think they can continue with this type of deception and
get away with it. Isn't the internet wonderful?
3) With all that money spent, MI3 still flopped
SIGN THE PETITION TO BOYCOTT MI3
http://www.petitionspot.com/petitions/boycottmi3
Click here to sign the petition to Boycott Mission Impossible 3
